Who Will Run the UN? Inside the 2026 Race for Secretary-General

Updated: 3 October 2026

On 31 December 2026, António Guterres’s term as Secretary-General of the United Nations comes to an end. Whoever replaces him will become the face of the world’s largest international organisation, the person who speaks up in crises, leads peace efforts, and manages a system that touches everything from vaccines to refugees.

That person is being chosen right now. And the way it happens is one of the most fascinating processes in world politics.

How do you choose the world’s top diplomat?

The rules come from Article 97 of the UN Charter. In short:

1. The Security Council, 15 countries, recommends a candidate.
2. The General Assembly, all 193 member states, then formally appoints them.

The real contest happens in step one. To be recommended, a candidate needs at least 9 of the 15 Security Council votes and, crucially, no veto from any of the five permanent members: the United States, the United Kingdom, France, China and Russia.

That second condition changes everything. A candidate can be popular with most of the world and still fail if a single permanent member objects.

Straw polls: voting in the shadows

Before any official vote, the Security Council holds a series of secret “straw polls”. Each member marks every candidate as “encourage”, “discourage” or “no opinion”. Results are reported by number only, so nobody officially knows which country voted which way.

In 2026, polls were held on 30 July, 21 August, 18 September and 29 September. Later in the process, the Council can switch to colour-coded ballots, where the five permanent members use a different colour. That’s when it becomes clear whether a frontrunner is facing a hidden veto. As of early October, that stage had not yet been reached.

There’s also a newer tradition of openness. Since 2016, candidates take part in public question sessions, where member states and civil society can ask them about their plans. In 2026, these were held in April, followed by a town-hall debate in July.

Where the race stands

According to reports on the fourth straw poll on 29 September:

Candidate	Country	Encourage	Discourage	No opinion
Rebeca Grynspan	Costa Rica	10	3	2
Carolyn Rodrigues-Birkett	Guyana	8	6	1
Rafael Grossi	Argentina	8	7	0

Rebeca Grynspan, an economist who heads the UN’s trade and development body (UNCTAD), has led recent polls. Rafael Grossi has led the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA). Carolyn Rodrigues-Birkett is a former foreign minister of Guyana. Former Chilean president Michelle Bachelet withdrew from the race on 19 September.

Remember: a lead in “encourage” votes doesn’t guarantee anything. One “discourage” from a permanent member could still turn into a veto.

Two unwritten rules shaping the race

Regional rotation. There’s an informal tradition of rotating the job between world regions. Many diplomats consider it Latin America’s turn; the last Secretary-General from the region was Javier Pérez de Cuéllar of Peru, who served in the 1980s. All three leading candidates are from Latin America and the Caribbean.

A first woman? In more than 80 years, the UN has never had a woman as Secretary-General. Many countries, campaigners and Guterres himself have said it’s time. Two of the three leading candidates are women.

The geopolitics behind the scenes

Because of the veto, the five permanent members matter most, and their positions are mostly signalled through reports rather than public statements. Media reports suggest, for example, that the United States has reservations about some candidates and that China has its own preferences, while Russia, the UK and France have not stated public positions. These reports are based on diplomatic sources and could change.

This is a good reminder of how international politics often works: much of the real negotiation happens quietly, long before any public vote.

India’s angle

India has not, according to available reports, publicly backed a candidate. But the race connects to one of India’s long-standing diplomatic goals: reforming the Security Council itself.

At the UN General Assembly in late September 2026, External Affairs Minister S. Jaishankar again called for reform of the Security Council to reflect today’s world, and spoke about the pressures facing developing countries, the “Global South”, on food, fuel, fertiliser and finance.

India’s argument is simple: a Council whose permanent members were fixed in 1945 doesn’t reflect a world where India is the most populous country. The way the Secretary-General is chosen, with five countries holding a veto, is one of the clearest examples of that structure in action.

What to watch next

• More straw polls in October, and whether the Council moves to colour-coded ballots.
• Whether a candidate emerges without a veto, leading to a formal recommendation.
• The General Assembly’s final appointment, and whether the UN gets its first woman leader.

Sources

• United Nations – Selection and appointment of the Secretary-General
• The National – Grynspan leads fourth straw poll (29 Sep 2026)
• PassBlue – Third straw poll shows no consensus (18 Sep 2026)
• Geneva Solutions – Veto-wielders still undecided (Sep/Oct 2026)
• Wikipedia – 2026 UN Secretary-General selection
• United Nations – High-level week 2026